Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.131208 2.257129 2.389808 2.540576 2.707831 2.888483 3.099434
2025-05-18 1.936383 2.108293 2.298176 2.525395 2.792535 3.100052 3.485986
2025-05-25 1.805132 2.001038 2.224272 2.501009 2.840046 3.249151 3.792134
2025-06-01 1.705332 1.916484 2.162940 2.477114 2.875108 3.374703 4.070970
2025-06-08 1.635886 1.860242 2.127634 2.477036 2.933295 3.527535 4.395754
2025-06-15 1.588599 1.826097 2.114670 2.500637 3.019578 3.720529 4.795388
2025-06-22 1.521099 1.762278 2.059487 2.463940 3.019883 3.792294 5.023402
2025-06-29 1.458877 1.701466 2.004030 2.421962 3.007651 3.842141 5.220184
2025-07-06 1.399153 1.640847 1.945338 2.371257 2.978084 3.861811 5.367939
2025-07-13 1.377244 1.627444 1.947049 2.402029 3.065601 4.062952 5.844219
2025-07-20 1.359636 1.618445 1.953528 2.438864 3.163476 4.288349 6.399637
2025-07-27 1.341503 1.607670 1.956608 2.470274 3.254503 4.510921 6.990505
2025-08-03 1.305769 1.572674 1.925838 2.452098 3.269334 4.611097 7.367936
2025-08-10 1.273627 1.541346 1.898775 2.437755 3.288906 4.721141 7.788954
2025-08-17 1.240847 1.507912 1.867247 2.414754 3.292281 4.801867 8.162155
2025-08-24 1.210309 1.476474 1.837201 2.392208 3.294353 4.879645 8.545364
2025-08-31 1.188664 1.456502 1.822540 2.392134 3.333418 5.030053 9.141482
2025-09-07 1.175070 1.447141 1.822538 2.414403 3.411606 5.264424 10.022912
2025-09-14 1.145452 1.414444 1.787486 2.379775 3.388194 5.293373 10.350422
2025-09-21 1.115852 1.381002 1.750299 2.340138 3.353408 5.295531 10.602944
2025-09-28 1.085241 1.345410 1.708950 2.292228 3.301103 5.256423 10.723620
2025-10-05 1.077694 1.342285 1.715310 2.321309 3.389592 5.525991 11.910917
2025-10-12 1.072006 1.341549 1.725035 2.356100 3.490932 5.837942 13.398766